My logical perspective

There has been lots of discussion in the Sydney papers about the NRL around the new Commission and the next TV rights deal.

I like the idea of a commission but I fail to see how it will truly affect the way the NRL is run today.  Sure, it takes out some of the current warring factions - QRL, ARL, NRL, other state bodies - and commercial companies like News Ltd who perhaps hold too much sway in decision making, but I don't see how it will alter the game as a whole...other than to allow more clubs to be privatised, like the Knights

Associated with these articles is discussion and the presumption that the next TV rights deal due next year will rake in $1billion+.  Foxtel is the only subscriber TV service so why would they pay that money?  They have no competitor for pay TV.  Channel Nine don't need to buy pay TV out to get free to air access as there is legislation that free to air must get first dibs on sport and only Channel 10 appear to want to challenge Nine for the free to air rights.  Channel 7 appear to have decided to drop it for AFL.  The ABC and SBS can't compete due to small pockets.

I just don't see Foxtel, Nine or Ten offering anywhere near $1billion.  I can't see it getting over half of that.  If there is no auction there is nothing to push the price up and without TV the NRL won't exist.  The TV channels have the upper hand.

Channel Nine not showing games live after buying rights is an issue but not for the viewers.  I'm more than happy for Nine to edit out the dead time in a game.